Ever since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer prices have been rising, affecting farm production. In 2024, 30% of the world’s fertilizer passed through the Strait of Hormuz to global exports. However, Iran is restricting shipping through this crucial passageway in response to attacks by the United States. According to Adam Hanieh, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute at the University of London, he states, “About a third of the world’s basic fertilizers now pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” adding that a “coming food crisis” is possible due to the climate and debt crisis in the developing world. Prices in the fertilizer markets have a sharp increase. 

In the US, two of the three significant nutrients in fertilizer are nitrogen and phosphate. The Persian Gulf region is a large producing hub for both, but fertilizer is also produced in other Middle East countries, specifically the ones at risk of conflict. Due to these unforeseen factors, the options for moderating the shock to the fertilizer chain are difficult when trying to asses potentional impacts and to predict future shocks.

For the people waiting for materials like oil and fertilizer off the coast of Iran, it’s a costly time. The American Farm Bureau Federation surveyed 5,700 farms, which revealed that about 70% of them believe fertilizer is expensive and that they will not be able to afford all the fertilizer they need for the growing season. The skyrocketing prices have created significant economic hardship for farmers, in addition to 94% of farmers who responded to the survey saying their financial situation has either worsened or remained the same over the past year.

Economists with the Farm Bureau believe that people deciding on spring planting will depend heavily on their access to fertilizer and fuel, both impacted by geopolitical risks, disrupting the global markets. Due to the escalation of the war, prices are not expected to drop till the Strait reopens, with most farmers planning to forego applying fertilizer, hoping prices will become affordable for the next growing season.